ENSO Update

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Bulletin November 2018 - Summary

Sea Surface Temperatures are steadily increasing to warm temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.

Equatorial Trade Winds are normal.

For Vanuatu, SSTs are weak, cool to normal temperatures.

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Bulletin November 2018 - El Nino Oscillation

In contrast to normal expectations of a developing El Niño, the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) has risen to +4.0 since September, with little change in early November. Therefore, SOI is still within the neutral range.

During the ENSO neutral phase, rainfall remains near normal within the islands of Vanuatu.

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Bulletin November 2018 - MJO

The MJO is a pulse of atmospheric wave that enhances rainfall in Vanuatu. MJO is currently inactive over Vanuatu.

Models predict the MJO to weaken in the next one to two weeks, and re-strengthens afterwards.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin November 2018 - Cloud

Cloud activities are above average through out Vanuatu (purple color). Thus, bringing normal to above normal rainfall to most islands in Vanuatu, in the past three months.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin November 2018 - Rainfall

Rainfall detected by satellite is indicating normal rainfall over Southern Vanuatu and above normal for Northern Vanuatu.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin November 2018 - SST

Sub-sea surface temperatures have been warm near Vanuatu in recent October, and slowly cooling.

Warm temperatures have also enhanced the daily rainfall Vanuatu experienced in the past month.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin November 2018 - MSLP

In the past month, Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomalies are indicating below normal anomalies for Southern Vanuatu, and above normal for the Northern Vanuatu.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin November 2018 - Model Outlooks

The Climate Model summary is predicting NINO3.4SST anomalies to have further gradual warming and possibly leading to El Nino into early 2019.

El Nino in Vanuatu means, less than normal rainfall and weak cool temperatures.

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Bulletin November 2018 - SPCZ

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) shifted southwest from Vanuatu to SE French Polynesia in the past month.

Currently, the SPCZ has had some influence on the rainfall over Vanuatu in the past month.

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