ENSO Update

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Bulletin December 2018 - Summary

Sea Surface Temperatures have returned to ENSO-neutral temperatures. Recent strong trade winds are associated with movement of MJO over the tropical Pacific, which may have slightly contributed to the cooling of the Pacific waters.

While sub-surface temperatures of the Pacific remains warmer than average, ENSO outlook remains at El Nino ALERT as atmospheric indicators are still neutral.

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Bulletin December 2018 - El Nino Oscillation

In contrast to normal expectations of a developing El Niño, the SOI has been rising recently in recent months. The latest 30 day value since January 13th 2019 is +2. Therefore SOI still remains in neutral phase.

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Bulletin December 2018 - MJO

The MJO is a pulse of atmospheric wave that enhances rainfall in over the Indian and Pacific ocean. MJO is currently inactive over Vanuatu.

Forecasts have the MJO remaining weak for a short time before re-strengthening over the Maritime Continent (which includes Vanuatu) during the upcoming weeks.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin December 2018 - Cloud

Cloud activities were mostly above average throughout Vanuatu (purple color). Thus, bringing normal to above normal rainfall to most islands in Vanuatu in the past month.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin December 2018 - Rainfall

Average rainfall detected by satellite for the last 30 days since January 6th showed normal to above normal rainfall experienced throughout Vanuatu.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin December 2018 - SST

Sea Surface Temperatures between November and December shows slight cooling across the tropical Pacific.

Sub-sea surface temperatures have weakened in the eastern Pacific, and appear to be strengthening in the central Pacific, which is not a typical El Nino pattern.

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Source

Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin December 2018 - MSLP

In the past month, Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomalies are indicating normal throughout Vanuatu.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin December 2018 - Model Outlooks

The Climate Model maintains El Nino threshold for the ocean, but atmosphere yet to respond. Model outlooks suggest El Nino levels will be maintained through to May 2019, however model accuracy forecasting through the autumn months is low.

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Bulletin December 2018 - SPCZ

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) shifted southwest from Vanuatu to SE French Polynesia in the past month.

The SPCZ was much stronger than normal and it was displaced to the southwest, thus had some influence on the rainfall over Vanuatu in the past month.

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