ENSO Update

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Bulletin September 2018 - Summary

The El Nino -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However model outlook continue to indicate El Nino is possible from end of this year 2018.

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Bulletin September 2018 - El Nino Oscillation

The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) has fallen to -6.9 since August with little change in early September. Therefore, the SOI is still within the neutral range.

During the ENSO neutral phase, rainfall remains near normal within the islands of Vanuatu.

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Bulletin September 2018 - MJO

The MJO is a pulse of atmospheric wave that enhances rainfall in Vanuatu. Recently the MJO has been inactive.

However, daily rainfall in the past month has been due to frontal systems moving over New Zealand to Vanuatu.

Models predict the MJO to remain inactive in the next 4 weeks.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin September 2018 - Cloud

Cloud activities has been mostly from the south part of Vanuatu (purple color). Thus, bringing near- normal rainfall to most islands in Vanuatu.

From Central to north Vanuatu, below normal cloud cover causing suppressed rainfall.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin September 2018 - Rainfall

Rainfall detected by satellite is indicating below- normal rainfall over Vanuatu in August this year.

Northern Vanuatu region had below normal rainfall, while Southern region has been near-normal.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin September 2018 - SST

Sub-sea surface temperatures have been weak warm near Vanuatu in recent August.

Weak warm temperatures have also enhanced the daily rainfall Vanuatu experienced in the past month.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin September 2018 - MSLP

Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomalies are indicating in August for Southern Region, below normal anomalies, and above normal for Northern region.

This is evident of synoptic low pressure systems extending frontal systems to Vanuatu in the past month August.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin September 2018 - Model Outlooks

The Climate model summary is predicting NINO3.4 SST anomalies to have gradual warming and possibly leading to an El Nino late this year.

El Nino in Vanuatu means, less than normal rainfall.

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Bulletin September 2018 - SPCZ

The (South Pacific Convergence Zone) SPCZ is contracted and remains mostly over PNG and Solomon islands in the past month.

Currently, the SPCZ has had little influence on the rainfall over Vanuatu in the past month.

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