ENSO Update

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Bulletin May 2018 - Summary

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remain neutral (INACTIVE) - neither El Nino nor La Nina. The Tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to warm slowly.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has weakened, and will likely to remain inactive over the next coming weeks in the Western Pacific which includes Vanuatu.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) has moved back to its normal position. Therefore rainfall is strongly suppressed over Vanuatu.

SCOPIC and APCC models favour normal to above normal rainfall for Vanuatu in the next coming three months.

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Bulletin May 2018 - El Nino Oscillation

In the Tropical Pacific, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral (INACTIVE).

Most oceanic and atmospheric indicators of ENSO are at neutral levels.

Over Vanuatu, Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) have slowly returned to normal, trade winds are close to average, and cloud cover is below normal over the past month.

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Bulletin May 2018 - MJO

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has weakened rapidly and moved to the Indian Ocean has little to no influence over tropical weather over Vanuatu. MJO will remain inactive in the next coming three months.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin May 2018 - Cloud

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) moved northward away from Vanuatu in the past month of April. This current position of the SPCZ has contributed to the recent suppressed rainfall over Vanuatu and this is expected to continue in the next coming three months.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin May 2018 - Rainfall

The variability of cloud cover reflects the rainfall amount experienced. The rainfall in Vanuatu has been near average and is expected to remain normal to above normal in the next three months.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin May 2018 - SST

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for April were slightly cooler than average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Warm anomalies were present across most of the South Pacific particularly south of 20degS, and northern Maritime. west of japan and east Mexico.

In Vanuatu SST anomalies are warm but slowly cooling.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin May 2018 - MSLP

The April mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomaly map shows negative (below normal) MSLP across east of Vanuatu to Fiji, Tonga and Niue. Positive anomalies from 0 hPa were present west of 170degE.

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Note: Due to frequent images update from source provider, the quoted Sources might not give the same images as shown

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Bulletin May 2018 - Model Outlooks

SCOPIC and APCC models both are in favour of normal to above normal rainfall for Vanuatu in the up-coming three months.

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Bulletin May 2018 - SPCZ

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) has shifted northward to its normal position,hence active over Solomon islands to Cook islands, and contributing to rainfall over north Vanuatu. The island countries further south such as Tonga, central and southern Vanuatu experienced below normal rainfall in the past month.

The outlook for the next three months is normal to above normal rainfall in Vanuatu.

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