Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department<br>
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PORT VILA

<h3 style = "text-align: center; width: 640;">
TROPICAL&nbsp;CYCLONE&nbsp;FORECAST&nbsp;TRACK&nbsp;MAP</h3>
<h3 style = "text-align: center; color: black; width: 640;">Tropical Cyclone KEVIN</h3>

<div style="width:640;">
Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map Number 6 issued at 4:15 pm VUT Thursday 2 March 2023
</div>

<br><br>

<p>
<img border="3" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/IDV60001.gif?1677734125858" width="640" height="480">
</p>
<br>

<table border="1" width="660" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1">
<tr>
  <td><b>Community Threat</b></td>
  <td><b>Past Cyclone Details</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
  <td valign="top">
    <table border="0" width="320"  cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0">
      <tr>
        <td width="5" height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td width="260" valign="middle">Warning Zone - Gales within 24 hours</td>
        <td width="55"  valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/warning_legend.gif"
                                             width="51" height="21"></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td valign="middle">Advisory Zone - Gales from 24 to 48 hours</td>
        <td valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/watch_legend.gif" width="51"
                                             height="21"></td>
      </tr>
    </table>
  </td>
  <td valign="top">
    <table border="0" width="320" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" >
      <tr>
        <td width="5" height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td width="260" valign="middle">Past Location and Intensity Number</td>
        <td width="55" valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/cyclone_position_black.gif"
                                            width="50" height="25"></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td valign="middle">Past Track and Movement</td>
        <td valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/observed_cyclone_track.gif"
                                            width="51" height="21"></td>
      </tr>
    </table>
  </td>
</tr>
<tr>
  <td valign="top"><b>Current Cyclone Details</b></td>
  <td valign="top"><b>Forecast Cyclone Details</b><br>
    (up to 72 hours from time of issue)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
  <td valign="top">
    <table border="0" width="320" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0">
      <tr>
        <td width="5" height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td width="260" valign="middle">Current Location and Intensity Number</td>
        <td width="55" valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/cyclone_position_blue.gif"
                                            width="50" height="25"></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td valign="middle">Very Destructive Winds</td>
        <td valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/analysis_hurricane_legend.gif"
                                 width="51" height="20"></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td valign="middle">Destructive Winds</td>
        <td valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/analysis_storm_legend.gif"
                                             width="51" height="20"></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td valign="middle">Gale Force Winds</td>
        <td valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/analysis_gale_legend.gif" width="51"
                                 height="20"></td>
      </tr>
    </table>
  </td>
  <td valign="top">
    <table border="0" width="320" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0">
      <tr>
        <td width="5" height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td width="260" valign="middle">Forecast Location and Intensity Number</td>
        <td width="55" valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/cyclone_position_grey.gif"
                                            width="50" height="25"></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td valign="middle">Very Destructive Wind Boundary</td>
        <td valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/forecast_hurricane_legend.gif"
                                 width="51" height="21"></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td valign="middle">Destructive Wind Boundary</td>
        <td valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/forecast_storm_legend.gif" width="51"
                                 height="21"></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td valign="middle">Gale Force Wind Boundary</td>
        <td valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/forecast_gale_legend.gif" width="51"
                                 height="21"></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td valign="middle">Most Likely Future Track</td>
        <td valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/forecast_cyclone_track.gif" width="51"
                                 height="20"></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td height="30">&nbsp;</td>
        <td valign="middle">Range of Likely Tracks</td>
        <td valign="middle"><img border="0" src="/tcmod/tcmfiles/tc_legends/forecastarea_48hour.gif" width="51"
                                 height="21"></td>
      </tr>
    </table>
  </td>
</tr>
</table>

<div style="width:640;">
<p><font color="#800000">
The forecast path shown above is VMGD's best estimate of the cyclone's
future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated
with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of
likely tracks.</font></p>
<p><font color="#800000">
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will
almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The
extent of the warning &amp; watch zones reflects this.</font></p>

<br>
<p>
<b>Remarks:</b>
</p>
    <p>Heavy rainfalls are expected over Vanuatu group with flash flooding in low lying areas, areas close to the river banks, including coastal flooding. <br/><br/>Seas will become rough to very rough with moderate to heavy swells as the system moves <br/>closer to the islands of Vanuatu.</p>


<p>
<b>Name:&nbsp;&nbsp;</b>Tropical Cyclone KEVIN
</p>
</div>

<p>
<b>Details: </b>
<br>
<table border="1" width="660" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1">

<tr align="center">
  <th>&nbsp;</th>
  <th>Time (VUT)</th>
  <th>Intensity Category</th>
  <th>Latitude<br>(decimal deg.)</th>
  <th>Longitude<br>(decimal deg.)</th>
  <th>Estimated Position<br>Accuracy (km)</th>
</tr>

<tr align="center">
  <td>0hr</td>
  <td>2 pm March 2</td>
  <td>1</td>
  <td>14.4S</td>
  <td>163.2E</td>
  <td>95</td>
</tr>

<tr align="center">
  <td>+6hr</td>
  <td>8 pm March 2</td>
  <td>1</td>
  <td>15.1S</td>
  <td>164.0E</td>
  <td>95</td>
</tr>

<tr align="center">
  <td>+12hr</td>
  <td>2 am March 3</td>
  <td>1</td>
  <td>15.8S</td>
  <td>164.8E</td>
  <td>95</td>
</tr>

<tr align="center">
  <td>+18hr</td>
  <td>8 am March 3</td>
  <td>2</td>
  <td>16.4S</td>
  <td>165.6E</td>
  <td>110</td>
</tr>

<tr align="center">
  <td>+24hr</td>
  <td>2 pm March 3</td>
  <td>2</td>
  <td>17.1S</td>
  <td>166.5E</td>
  <td>110</td>
</tr>

<tr align="center">
  <td>+36hr</td>
  <td>2 am March 4</td>
  <td>3</td>
  <td>18.6S</td>
  <td>168.5E</td>
  <td>110</td>
</tr>

<tr align="center">
  <td>+48hr</td>
  <td>2 pm March 4</td>
  <td>2</td>
  <td>20.2S</td>
  <td>171.1E</td>
  <td>130</td>
</tr>

<tr align="center">
  <td>+60hr</td>
  <td>2 am March 5</td>
  <td>2</td>
  <td>21.9S</td>
  <td>174.2E</td>
  <td>130</td>
</tr>

<tr align="center">
  <td>+72hr</td>
  <td>2 pm March 5</td>
  <td>2</td>
  <td>23.6S</td>
  <td>177.9E</td>
  <td>130</td>
</tr>

</table>
</p>
<div style="width:640;">
<p>
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 pm VUT Thursday
</p>
</div>